Results of Any Direct Clash Between The US and Iran

The situation has been intensified after the recent military exercises by Iran in the Persian Gulf and threats from the Iranian authorities about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the major oil shipment route to the world from the Middle East. The world is now thinking on two possible situations, first, what if the United States and its allies decides to attack Iran?, alternatively, if there would be no armed conflict, how diplomacy, negotiations, sanctions and other arm twisting tactics would work. The first situation is reviewed here that if Iran is dealt with force, how the whole region will be affected.

The Story Behind The US-Iran Conflict

The relations between the United States and Iran always remained on a tight rope since the Iranian Revolution in 1979 (especially after the hostage crises) but in the past few years, it touched a new height when Iran increased the speed of its nuclear program. The support of the Iranian government to organizations like Hezbollah and other anti-US Shi'ite leaders and terrorist outfits of the region also further deteriorated the relations. Recently, President Barack Obama announced US government’s sanctions against Iran (which were soon followed by the European Union) in an effort to pressurize the Iranian government on its nuclear program. The Iranian nuclear program is the biggest threat to all of the US allies in the Middle East as well as for the oil shipments from there to all parts of the world. Recently, when the Iranians saw no way-out, they have started military exercises in the Persian Gulf and threatened to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz which is the most critical point for the oil shipments from all the major oil exporting countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates and even for Iran itself.

The Strait of Hormuz - Some Facts & Figures

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow strip which separates the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman. The shortest point in the strait is 34 miles (54km) wide but the most critical factor is that the large ships which are the lifeline of the global oil supplies can only pass through a 6 mile wide Traffic Separation Scheme with 2 mile wide lanes each for outgoing and incoming shipping traffic with a 2 mile wide buffer between the two lanes. Through this 6 miles wide shipping channel, almost 40% of all sea-borne oil shipments to the world pass through. Around 15-20 million barrels of crude oil passes through this strategically important choke-point daily. This also includes 50% of all the oil imports of China. In early 2012, Iran started military exercises in the Persian Gulf as to proof that it has enough capabilities to deal with any attack from the US side but they also knew that despite their threatening gestures, the US and its allies are far more superior in quality, quantity, technology or in everything. After assessing this reality, they started threatening to close the Strait because this is the only thing on which they can play their cards with the west but even this is not possible because along with the other countries, Iran’s own economy will be paralyzed in case of the Strait of Hormuz’s closure because of 80% of Iranian export revenue comes from the oil exports so definitely, they also know the consequences.

If Iran is Attacked?

Despite all the zigzag diplomacy from both the sides, it seems that due to the noncooperation of the Iranian government with the international community to peacefully settle the issue of its nuclear program, an attack on the Iranian soil is now on the cards if not totally ruled out. If this really happens, it would bring disastrous results for the entire world especially for the countries located near Iran. Here, we have tried to anticipate what would happen in case of an armed conflict between Iran and US:

Disruption of Oil Supplies

Even if the Iranis don’t get a chance to close the Strait of Hormuz or the US remains successful in saving it from closure, the Irani government and armed forces will definitely try to create a crises in the seas of Persian Gulf as to disrupt the oil supplies from other oil exporting countries (all of them are coincidentally rivals of Iran and supporters of the US policies). This will accelerate the oil prices in the international market resulting in more setbacks to the fragile economies of the west.

Fueling of Terrorism

As the Irani government or forces are not capable of any direct standoff with the US, they will obviously go for the support of terrorist activities in the neighboring countries to harm the US interests. The large Shi'ite populations of Iraq, Lebanon, Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia will receive more strong backing from the Irani side to dent the US interests in the region. All the next door neighbors of Iran are allies of US in the war of terror and these countries will be a key target hence the wave will be expanded from Middle East to South and Central Asia. This could also jeopardize the slow moving peace process in Afghanistan.

Results and Solution

If all of this happens, than all the countries of the world will feel the turbulence of this and other countries (like China and Russia who are in total disagreement with the US on any attempt to defuse the situation by force) will also be involved. In this situation, the US government should work on the three fold policy; firstly, engage the Islamic countries having close relations with Iran to pressurize the Iranian government to withdraw from its nuclear program. Furthermore, it must be clearly communicated to the Islamic world that this is not a move against Islam or Muslims. Secondly, convince the other powers (who are not agreed with the US policy at the moment) to reduce their relations and cooperation with Iran as to make the sanctions effective. Finally, together with the global community, increase diplomatic pressure on Iran and put stress on the Iranian government to refrain from the noncooperation mode and allow the diplomacy to bring results instead of pushing the whole region towards a disaster.